When comparing bookmaker odds, the Expected Value of a Bet shows us how much money we can expect to win (on average) on each wager. How can you figure out the Expected Value in sports betting, so you can anticipate your winnings? Continue reading to find out them and to เว็บบาคาร่า.
Why Is Expected Value Important?
New sports bettors frequently believe that they should place their wagers on “winners.” They analyze a game, predict who will win or cover the spread, then place bets accordingly. Many rookie sports bettors get taken aback when told that this is not the way to wager. They get utterly taken aback when they discover that the teams they expect to lose (or not cover the spread) are sometimes the better bets.
What is the reason behind this? It is because a few people are capable of correctly guessing the winners of spread games with such high precision that it’s profitable. Bookmakers generate the majority of their money this way.
How to Make a Bet With a Positive Expected Value?
A +EV bettor is like a savvy grocery shopper to use another comparison. When the costs of an item are more massive than they were on a prior visit, the astute shopper observes and finds a suitable replacement. That same customer does purchase a reduced item that he would not have gotten otherwise.
The same principle applies to sports betting. Rather than betting on a team that will almost certainly win but at a high price, +EV bettors scour the online sports betting market for the widest gaps between what they believe will happen and what the book, via its betting lines, says will happen.
Expected Value and Vig
Vig/juice plays a significant effect on predicted value. Because sportsbooks impose a vig on every wager, it’s vital to compute the implied probability associated with those odds with the vig subtracted. The “fair odds” or “no-vig odds” are what they get termed.
Despite having -110 odds, we evaluated the anticipated value for the coin flip and found that the winning/losing probability was 50%. Since the -110 odds get rigged, the genuine percent was 50/50 in both directions. Knowing that the implied likelihood of -110 odds is 52.38 percent, the total probability is 104.76 percent. The juice makes up 4.76 percent of the total. By removing it, the “fair odds” would be +100, meaning a 50/50 chance.
What Role Does Expected Value Play in Sports Betting?
Remember that a negative EV does not imply that you will lose money. Sports betting odds, unlike coin tosses, are subjective, so if you can outwit the bookmaker, you’re likely to win.
You may see where to locate a positive EV and hence the best opportunity to win if you compute your probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds.
Wigan, for example, has a 7.4 percent probability of winning based on the odds. If you determine that Wigan has a 10% probability of winning (maybe using a Poisson distribution scheme), the EV for betting on a Wigan win climbs to $3.262.