The U.S. PC market experienced a welcome return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, with shipments increasing by 3% year-over-year. This positive trend marks a significant turnaround after two preceding quarters of decline, driven by a confluence of factors including the final push for Windows 11 commercial upgrades and increased holiday season demand.
Key Takeaways
- US PC shipments grew 3% in Q4 2025, reaching 18.2 million units.
- Full-year 2025 shipments also saw a 3% increase.
- A cautious outlook for 2026 predicts a 13% decline due to component shortages.
- Apple showed significant market share gains throughout 2025.
Windows 11 Migration and Consumer Demand Drive Q4 Growth
The resurgence in the final quarter of 2025 was primarily attributed to the peak of Windows 11 commercial refreshes as businesses rushed to upgrade before potential support deadlines. Alongside this, robust holiday season spending contributed to a 6% rise in consumer shipments, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of annual growth in this segment. Vendors also proactively secured inventory in anticipation of anticipated memory and storage supply constraints in 2026.
Segment Performance and Future Outlook
While the consumer and commercial segments showed strength, the education sector continued to be a weak point, experiencing an 11% decline in Q4. However, this represented an improvement from earlier quarters, suggesting a clearing of inventory overhang. Government shipments saw a slight increase of 1%. Looking ahead, the market faces significant challenges in 2026. Memory and storage costs have risen substantially since early 2025, with further increases expected in the first quarter of 2026. Omdia forecasts a 13% year-on-year decline in US PC shipments for 2026, totaling approximately 61.9 million units, before a modest recovery in 2027.
Vendor Landscape and Apple’s Ascendancy
In Q4 2025, Dell demonstrated impressive growth, surging 22% year-on-year to secure the second position with a 25% market share, largely driven by commercial segment deals. HP maintained its lead with a 25% share despite modest 1% growth. Lenovo and Apple held mid-teen market shares during the quarter.
However, the most notable vendor story for the full year 2025 was Apple. The company made significant market share gains, reaching an 11% share in US businesses, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from 2024. This growth was propelled by the MacBook Air, particularly after strategic pricing adjustments and increased memory options. The introduction of the more affordable “Neo” model is also expected to disrupt the entry-level market.
Via Omdia
