AMD apparently took a shot with its Zen 4 timeline thinking that DDR5 memory prices will remain stable in the coming weeks, close to the time the Zen 4 is scheduled to ship. DDR5 memory pricing seems to have been dropping; in this quarter alone the prices have gone down by as much as 8 percent and it is expected to go down even further in the next quarter by as much as % percent due to inflation.
On top of the price drops, there is more adding to this change in landscape; the increase in the quantity of more and more DDR5 memory kits entering the market. This appears to be a different case altogether and nothing compared to what the market looked like last year in November when Intel released its 12th Gen Core Alder Lake processors. The memory kits at that time were selling for up to 2,400 USD on eBay.
Intel could reap the benefits at that time and still continues to do so based on the fact that Alder Lake has DDR5 memory as optional. This means that depending on the kind of motherboard, your Alder Lake can be paired with a DDR4 memory too. However, the case with Zen 4 is totally opposite as AMD is providing only the DDR4 memory. Hence, to act in the favor of AMD, the DRAM market needs to be in a favorable position.
According to TrendForce, “In terms of PC DRAM, sustained weakening of demand has led to PC OEMs adjusting their annual shipment targets and also caused DRAM inventories to soar rapidly…since the overall DRAM industry remains oversupplied, even if PC demand is sluggish, suppliers still experienced difficulties in reducing their PC DRAM supply, resulting in a slight quarterly increase in the number of supplied bits. Therefore, PC DRAM pricing is forecast to drop by 3~8 percent.”
TrendForce has shared that the pricing of the DDR4 memory has gone down by 5 percent this quarter and it has gone down by 8 percent for the DDR5 memory. The prediction for the next quarter sees a further declining trend for both memory kits. So by Q2 and Q3, both memory kits will see a price decline of almost 13 percent.